Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 0.111768 0.124549 0.137784 0.152483 0.168318 0.184832 0.203324
2024-10-13 0.091300 0.110077 0.130626 0.154646 0.181806 0.211427 0.246028
2024-10-20 0.076474 0.099023 0.124944 0.156602 0.193876 0.236020 0.286916
2024-10-27 0.065322 0.090299 0.120308 0.158395 0.204802 0.258871 0.325956
2024-11-03 0.061263 0.089341 0.124298 0.170024 0.227226 0.295395 0.381683
2024-11-10 0.053362 0.082381 0.119886 0.170487 0.235489 0.314704 0.416953
2024-11-17 0.047723 0.077649 0.117660 0.173150 0.246102 0.336728 0.455659
2024-11-24 0.042253 0.072457 0.114214 0.173686 0.253609 0.354699 0.489410
2024-12-01 0.040539 0.072412 0.117622 0.183316 0.273054 0.388066 0.543046
2024-12-08 0.038964 0.072346 0.120854 0.192658 0.292218 0.421353 0.597115
2024-12-15 0.035226 0.068522 0.118314 0.193637 0.299894 0.439615 0.631961
2024-12-22 0.030749 0.063027 0.112855 0.190036 0.300953 0.448940 0.655119
2024-12-29 0.029418 0.062786 0.115560 0.198769 0.320005 0.483495 0.713269
2025-01-05 0.027229 0.060886 0.115609 0.203626 0.333838 0.511508 0.763603
2025-01-12 0.024925 0.058524 0.114734 0.206998 0.345604 0.536955 0.811037
2025-01-19 0.022713 0.056056 0.113471 0.209626 0.356268 0.561029 0.857000
2025-01-26 0.022867 0.058080 0.119716 0.224117 0.384673 0.610277 0.938013
2025-02-02 0.020598 0.055104 0.117298 0.224768 0.392483 0.630736 0.979854
2025-02-09 0.018986 0.053238 0.116616 0.228074 0.404250 0.656899 1.029874
2025-02-16 0.017141 0.050639 0.114424 0.228747 0.411929 0.677264 1.072044
2025-02-23 0.017010 0.051734 0.118909 0.240558 0.436919 0.722874 1.150116
2025-03-02 0.016822 0.052671 0.123115 0.251982 0.461493 0.768194 1.228291
2025-03-09 0.015363 0.050502 0.121367 0.253179 0.469997 0.790087 1.273416